SCM Useful Links

Supply Chain Management – Solution Finder Useful Links

OUR SOLUTIONS TO HELP MANAGE YOUR SUPPLY CHAIN

Supply Chain Business Solutions offers the following solutions to help manage your supply chain.

Forecast Pro is a proven sales forecasting, demand forecasting, and a sales and operations planning tool that is used by over 35000 business professionals around the world mainly for forecasting future sales or customer demands of finished products.

Supply Chain Planning (SCP) is an integrated Forecasting, Distribution Requirements Planning (DRP). Master Production Scheduling (MPS) and Material Requirements Planning (MRP) tool, which is used by manufacturing and distribution businesses to plan inventories throughout their supply chain.

Preactor Advanced Planning System helps in effective scheduling of production helping manufacturing companies to minimise work in progress inventories and reduce manufacturing costs. Preactor is a constraints-based production scheduling solution that will help manufacturing businesses schedule production to best meet customer demands while achieving business objectives such as minimise work in process inventories, minimise costs by doing things such as minimise changeovers or optimising schedules in other ways.

They include:

Multivariate Forecasting Techniques (Causal / econometric forecasting methods): Methods that capture the relationship between the dependent variable (the variable to be forecasted) and independent (explanatory) variables. Multivariate models can also include Time Series components. These methods use the assumption that it is possible to identify the underlying factors that might influence the variable that is being forecast. For example, sales of umbrellas might be associated with weather conditions. If the causes are understood, projections of the influencing variables can be made and used in the forecast.

Examples of Multivariate methods are: USEFUL FORECASTING TERMS

Forecast accuracy measurement of forecast usefulness, often defined as the average difference between the forecast value to the actual value Forecast bias Tendency of a forecast to systematically miss the actual demand (consistently either high or low).

Forecast error the difference between actual demand and forecast demand stated as an absolute value or as a percentage.

Forecast horizon the period of time into the future for which a forecast is prepared.

Forecast interval or Forecast Period the time unit for which forecasts are prepared, such as a week, month, or quarter.

Forecast management the process of making, checking, correcting, and using forecasts. It also includes the determination of the forecast horizon.

Forecast mean absolute percentage of error (FMAPE) the absolute error divided by actual demand for periods, where the absolute error is the variation between the actual demand and the forecast for the period expressed as a positive value (without regard for sign).

For a very good presentation on the subject of measuring forecast accuracy please click the link below‚ Mechanics of calculating forecast accuracy

COLLABORATIVE FORECASTING

(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment – From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia)

Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) is a concept that aims to enhance supply chain integration by supporting and assisting joint practices. CPFR seeks cooperative management of inventory through joint visibility and replenishment of products throughout the supply chain. Information shared between suppliers and retailers aids in planning and satisfying customer demands through a supportive system of shared information. This allows for continuous updating of inventory and upcoming requirements, making the end-to-end supply chain process more efficient. Efficiency is created through the decrease expenditures for merchandising, inventory, logistics, and transportation across all trading partners. For some useful information on CPFR and further links please visit:
Collaborative Planning, Forecasting & Replenishment (CPFR‚ ®) Committee

IMPROVING FORECAST ACCURACY

The biggest challenge in the area of forecasting for any business is how to improve the accuracy of its sales/demand forecasts. Low forecast accuracy means higher inventories, higher costs, and lower customer service. Improving forecast accuracy can lead to lower inventories, lower costs and higher customer service. While improving forecast accuracy is not an easy task, below, we have provided links to a number of articles which you may find useful.

Nine Golden Rules of forecasting
Improving Forecast Accuracy by Selecting Right Forecasting Level
The Forecasting Canon – Nine Generalization to Improve Forecast Accuracy
Pop Goes the Forecast